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Lake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority

Skip Navigation LinksLake Simcoe Region Conservation Authority > Watershed Trends and Projections

​​​​​Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

Watershed Trends and Projections

​Take a look at the trends and projections for the Lake Simcoe watershed in this infographic (or scroll down to read the text version).

A graphic showing climate projections for the Lake Simcoe watershed. A text version of this information is included below. 

Annual Mean Temperatures

​Annual temperatures are expected to increase by up to 5.5ºC​​.

  • ​Baseline 1981 to 2010 - 6.8ºC
  • 2020s - 8.2ºC
  • 2050s - 19.1ºC
  • 2080s - 12.3º​C

​Seasonal Mean Temperatures

​​Daily temperatures are projected to significantly increase in every season.

Projected increase by 2080:

  • Winter (baseline -6ºC) - 6.5º​C 
  • Spring (baseline 5.5ºC) - 5º​C 
  • Summer (baseline 19º​C) - 5.5º​C
  • Fall (baseline 9º​C) - 5º​​C 

Temperature Extremes

​More hot days, fewer cold days.

Days above 30º​​C

  • Baseline - 6
  • 2020s - 14
  • 2050s - 27
  • 2080s - 48
Days below -10º​C
  • ​Baseline - 38 
  • 2020s - 32
  • 2050s - 24
  • 2080s - 16

Precipitation Events

  • Intensity - Precipitation will fall at a faster rate.
  • Duration - The duration of heavy storms will increase. ​
  • Frequency - Heavy storms will occur more frequently.

Annual Mean Precipitation

​Annual precipitation is expected to increase. Winter and spring are projected to be significantly wetter.

  • Baseline 1976 to 2005 - 884mm
  • 2021 to 2050 - 941mm
  • 2051 to 2080 - 970mm

Growing Season

Last frost days will be earlier, and first frost days will be later.

  • Baseline 1976 to 2005 - 148.1 days
  • 2021 to 2050 - 171.7 days
  • 2051 to 2080 - 193.3 days